Narrative:Exploring Scenarios for National Research Priorities
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In autumn of 2002 the RCN launched a comprehensive foresight project as a response to an international evaluation of the Research Council. The evaluation had recommended to initiate foresight to invite to a ‘wider than normal debate about priorities and empower more parts of society in relation to the national research agenda’. This recommendation led to the initiation of the ‘Foresight project CREATE’. The project was described as a ‘development and strategy project’ with both ‘theoretical and method-oriented objectives’. It was part of a larger organisational process designed to serve as a new way of informing strategy processes and to help detect possible new research areas of crucial interest to the RCN and to national research development. | In autumn of 2002 the RCN launched a comprehensive foresight project as a response to an international evaluation of the Research Council. The evaluation had recommended to initiate foresight to invite to a ‘wider than normal debate about priorities and empower more parts of society in relation to the national research agenda’. This recommendation led to the initiation of the ‘Foresight project CREATE’. The project was described as a ‘development and strategy project’ with both ‘theoretical and method-oriented objectives’. It was part of a larger organisational process designed to serve as a new way of informing strategy processes and to help detect possible new research areas of crucial interest to the RCN and to national research development. | ||
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| + | '''''Responsibility''''' | ||
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| + | The foresight project CREATE was a first attempt to use a participatory approach by involving a large number of stakeholders representing research and industry. Five separate foresight projects were organised, covering the areas of aquaculture, clean energy systems, material technology (nanotechnology), biotechnology and ICT. Between thirty and forty external participants were invited to participate in each of the five projects. The projects were headed by foresight project groups consisting of ten to fourteen members, which were responsible for the design, conduct and results of the projects. They included both RCN staff and representatives of research institutes, universities and private companies invited by virtue of their professional backgrounds, experience and perspectives. Responsibility for the projects was thus distributed among different actors within and associated with the RCN. The five project groups had to report to the line management of the three divisions of the RCN and received guidance from a cross-divisional management group. The CREATE project was also required to meet the expectations of three boards overseeing the three divisions. All five projects used scenario building as their common method (link). | ||
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| + | '''''Single case study of ICT foresight project OUTLOOK''''' | ||
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| + | The following account is based on my PhD thesis delivered to the University of Oslo in March 2010 which is currently being reviewed by a PhD committee. I conducted a single case study of the ICT foresight project conducted by the RCN in 2004. The case study was based on first hand observation of the process, including observing workshops with forty participants, meetings of the foresight project group, the process of writing scenarios and the final evaluation of the scenarios and the foresight project in relation to the development of a new large ICT research programme. This process lasted from mid September 2004 to January 2005. For more information about my thesis see (link). For similar work conducted during my PhD period see Foresight papers (user link). | ||
| + | In this account I have chosen to draw out three issues of foresight approach and scenario development (scenario building link) which address participation, scenario writing and evaluation as experienced in the foresight project on ICT. | ||
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| + | '''''Participation and open approach''''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | In July 2004, two months before the first workshop meeting, the organisers of the foresight project sent out an invitation to about forty potential participants. The invitation was sent out to representatives of public and private research institutes, university professors, business leaders, ministry officials and representatives of public institutions, such as the central tax office, the post office and hospitals. The invitation implied that the foresight project was not directly about ‘technology foresight’, involving anticipating the development of certain areas like artificial intelligence or virtual reality. Its aim was rather to help define the research priorities to be included in the new ICT research programme ‘placing Norway at the forefront of ICT development and the application of ICT-based knowledge to innovation and interaction’. Further the invitation stated that the participants were required to contribute to an open and constructive dialogue. They should not be regarded as official representatives of certain economic or sectoral interests, but participate by virtue of their own competency and creativity. | ||
| + | In September 2004 the first workshop dedicated to scenario building was conducted by a hired foresight facilitator with comprehensive experience in leading participatory exercises. The forty participants were asked to work in six groups which had been designed and arranged beforehand. Scenario ideas were collected based on an open approach. | ||
| + | The participants were asked by the facilitator to collect as many driving forces as possible. Driving forces (df) could be trends, events, factors, and big actors, in short, anything that might influence the future. Later, after the ideas had been compared and discussed within the groups, the groups were asked to develop each two scenario models, for example scenario axes models, choosing from the driving forces collected within the groups. This resulted in a high variety of df, models and combinations of df among the groups. This very open approach to both collecting driving forces and developing first scenario models shows that the exercises were not meant to establish consensus about the most important df, but rather to cover as wide a perspective on the future as possible. | ||
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| + | '''''Scenario writing''''' | ||
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| + | The six workshop groups delivered six scenario drafts to the project group. Groups 1 and 6 had focused on ‘surveillance’ and a ‘warden society’ in which the need for security leads to new ICT solutions. Group 2 contributed the idea of a ‘user society’ in which ICT research is completely user-driven and geared towards entertainment. Group 3 had focused on a ‘competence society’ in which research priorities are made on a national basis geared towards improving competence among all citizens. Group 4 had focused on the regional aspects of social and technological development. Finally, Group 5 had concentrated on developing an idea about researchers being out of sync with the rest of society and living in an ivory tower, indifferent to social developments around them. In addition to these main themes, ideas representing discontinuity had been assembled under the heading ‘Wild cards/other ideas’. These were, according to the three project members who systematised the six scenario drafts into three scenarios, not relevant enough for the creation of scenarios (see Figure 1). | ||
| + | After the first two day workshop with forty participants, the project group together with two consultants with narrative competencies conducted seven meeting over the course of three weeks to establish three coherent scenario stories. Here several issues emerged. The scenarios were meant to address the question how ICT research should be conducted in the future and support better long term decision-making in the RCN. Six scenarios were deemed too many, while three would have to deliver inherently different stories. According to the project group elements from scenario drafts 1, 3 and 4 could be combined to create a first scenario called ‘The Spirit of the New ERA’. In this scenario, ICT development would become part of a state-governed strategy giving priority to national research. The title of this scenario would create a ‘marketing effect’ for the RCN. | ||
| + | Elements from ideas 2 and 4 could be combined into a scenario focusing on consumerism, short-term solutions and applied ICT research. Finally, elements from scenario drafts 1 and 5 could form the basis for a scenario showing the entire ICT research community as out of step with social developments and concentrating entirely on basic research without considering societal needs. Thus the workshop scenario drafts were ordered into stories that were assigned different roles in addressing ICT research policy (see Figure 1 link). | ||
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| + | Figure 1: Organising six scenarios into three, model developed by foresight facilitator. | ||
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| + | '''''Outcome of scenario writing process''''' | ||
Revision as of 17:38, 26 March 2010
OUTLOOK (2005-2015) – an ICT Foresight exercise directed by the Research Council of Norway (RCN)
Background
In autumn of 2002 the RCN launched a comprehensive foresight project as a response to an international evaluation of the Research Council. The evaluation had recommended to initiate foresight to invite to a ‘wider than normal debate about priorities and empower more parts of society in relation to the national research agenda’. This recommendation led to the initiation of the ‘Foresight project CREATE’. The project was described as a ‘development and strategy project’ with both ‘theoretical and method-oriented objectives’. It was part of a larger organisational process designed to serve as a new way of informing strategy processes and to help detect possible new research areas of crucial interest to the RCN and to national research development.
Responsibility
The foresight project CREATE was a first attempt to use a participatory approach by involving a large number of stakeholders representing research and industry. Five separate foresight projects were organised, covering the areas of aquaculture, clean energy systems, material technology (nanotechnology), biotechnology and ICT. Between thirty and forty external participants were invited to participate in each of the five projects. The projects were headed by foresight project groups consisting of ten to fourteen members, which were responsible for the design, conduct and results of the projects. They included both RCN staff and representatives of research institutes, universities and private companies invited by virtue of their professional backgrounds, experience and perspectives. Responsibility for the projects was thus distributed among different actors within and associated with the RCN. The five project groups had to report to the line management of the three divisions of the RCN and received guidance from a cross-divisional management group. The CREATE project was also required to meet the expectations of three boards overseeing the three divisions. All five projects used scenario building as their common method (link).
Single case study of ICT foresight project OUTLOOK
The following account is based on my PhD thesis delivered to the University of Oslo in March 2010 which is currently being reviewed by a PhD committee. I conducted a single case study of the ICT foresight project conducted by the RCN in 2004. The case study was based on first hand observation of the process, including observing workshops with forty participants, meetings of the foresight project group, the process of writing scenarios and the final evaluation of the scenarios and the foresight project in relation to the development of a new large ICT research programme. This process lasted from mid September 2004 to January 2005. For more information about my thesis see (link). For similar work conducted during my PhD period see Foresight papers (user link). In this account I have chosen to draw out three issues of foresight approach and scenario development (scenario building link) which address participation, scenario writing and evaluation as experienced in the foresight project on ICT.
Participation and open approach
In July 2004, two months before the first workshop meeting, the organisers of the foresight project sent out an invitation to about forty potential participants. The invitation was sent out to representatives of public and private research institutes, university professors, business leaders, ministry officials and representatives of public institutions, such as the central tax office, the post office and hospitals. The invitation implied that the foresight project was not directly about ‘technology foresight’, involving anticipating the development of certain areas like artificial intelligence or virtual reality. Its aim was rather to help define the research priorities to be included in the new ICT research programme ‘placing Norway at the forefront of ICT development and the application of ICT-based knowledge to innovation and interaction’. Further the invitation stated that the participants were required to contribute to an open and constructive dialogue. They should not be regarded as official representatives of certain economic or sectoral interests, but participate by virtue of their own competency and creativity. In September 2004 the first workshop dedicated to scenario building was conducted by a hired foresight facilitator with comprehensive experience in leading participatory exercises. The forty participants were asked to work in six groups which had been designed and arranged beforehand. Scenario ideas were collected based on an open approach. The participants were asked by the facilitator to collect as many driving forces as possible. Driving forces (df) could be trends, events, factors, and big actors, in short, anything that might influence the future. Later, after the ideas had been compared and discussed within the groups, the groups were asked to develop each two scenario models, for example scenario axes models, choosing from the driving forces collected within the groups. This resulted in a high variety of df, models and combinations of df among the groups. This very open approach to both collecting driving forces and developing first scenario models shows that the exercises were not meant to establish consensus about the most important df, but rather to cover as wide a perspective on the future as possible.
Scenario writing
The six workshop groups delivered six scenario drafts to the project group. Groups 1 and 6 had focused on ‘surveillance’ and a ‘warden society’ in which the need for security leads to new ICT solutions. Group 2 contributed the idea of a ‘user society’ in which ICT research is completely user-driven and geared towards entertainment. Group 3 had focused on a ‘competence society’ in which research priorities are made on a national basis geared towards improving competence among all citizens. Group 4 had focused on the regional aspects of social and technological development. Finally, Group 5 had concentrated on developing an idea about researchers being out of sync with the rest of society and living in an ivory tower, indifferent to social developments around them. In addition to these main themes, ideas representing discontinuity had been assembled under the heading ‘Wild cards/other ideas’. These were, according to the three project members who systematised the six scenario drafts into three scenarios, not relevant enough for the creation of scenarios (see Figure 1). After the first two day workshop with forty participants, the project group together with two consultants with narrative competencies conducted seven meeting over the course of three weeks to establish three coherent scenario stories. Here several issues emerged. The scenarios were meant to address the question how ICT research should be conducted in the future and support better long term decision-making in the RCN. Six scenarios were deemed too many, while three would have to deliver inherently different stories. According to the project group elements from scenario drafts 1, 3 and 4 could be combined to create a first scenario called ‘The Spirit of the New ERA’. In this scenario, ICT development would become part of a state-governed strategy giving priority to national research. The title of this scenario would create a ‘marketing effect’ for the RCN. Elements from ideas 2 and 4 could be combined into a scenario focusing on consumerism, short-term solutions and applied ICT research. Finally, elements from scenario drafts 1 and 5 could form the basis for a scenario showing the entire ICT research community as out of step with social developments and concentrating entirely on basic research without considering societal needs. Thus the workshop scenario drafts were ordered into stories that were assigned different roles in addressing ICT research policy (see Figure 1 link).
Figure 1: Organising six scenarios into three, model developed by foresight facilitator.
Outcome of scenario writing process
